Ukraine Latest: Blinken Warns Russia Against Any Nuclear Attack

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(Bloomberg) — Russia carried out military exercises simulating a retaliatory nuclear strike as President Joe Biden warned Vladimir Putin that any use of a nuclear weapon would be an “incredibly serious mistake.” 

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Echoing Biden’s warning of grave consequences, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interview Wednesday at Bloomberg’s Washington offices that “we’ve communicated that very clearly and directly to the Russians, including President Putin.”

As Putin oversaw Russia’s drills, he was told by his defense chief that the maneuvers on Wednesday were meant to simulate a “massive nuclear strike” in response to an attack, according to the televised remarks. The US had been notified that Russia would conduct the exercise in compliance with arms control obligations, the Pentagon said earlier. 

(See RSAN on the Bloomberg Terminal for the Russian Sanctions Dashboard.)

Key Developments

• Biden Warns Russia Against ‘False Flag’ Nuke Attack in Ukraine
• Putin Oversees Regular Nuclear Drills Amid Escalation Fears 
• Russians Fleeing Putin’s War Stoke Inflation Pain for Neighbors
• Biden Says Russia Has Given Cold Reception to Griner Diplomacy
• Europe Risks Diesel Supply Shock as Russia Oil Sanctions Near
• What Is a ‘Dirty Bomb’ and Why Is Ukraine Worried?: QuickTake

On the Ground

Two people died and four were injured in a Russian missile attack on the city of Dnipro on Tuesday evening, local authorities said on Telegram. Over the past day, Russian forces launched five missile strikes, up to 30 air attacks and more than 100 multiple rocket launcher assaults, according to Ukraine’s General Staff. Ukrainian troops repelled attacks near nine settlements, including Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, and downed five Russian drones, the military said. Ukrainian forces attacked Shakhtyorsk in the Donetsk, according to its pro-Russian mayor, and fuel tanks were on fire.

(All times CET)

Russia Slows 175 ships with Ukrainian Agricultural Products: Zelenskiy (10:07 p.m.)

The number of vessels waiting for inspections within the grain initiative increased to 175, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said in his regular address.

“It is not a trade problem,” Zelenskiy said. “This is about the access to food for millions of people and the threat of an even greater increase in the prices of basic products on different continents – both in Africa, and in Asia, and in Europe. It is obvious that Russia intends to exacerbate the global food crisis again, to bring back the threat of large-scale famine.”

Russia May Help Iran Crack Down on Dissent, US Says (10:01 p.m.)

The US is concerned that Russia, which is using Iranian attack drones in Ukraine, may be advising Iran on tactics to crack down on the Islamic Republic’s internal protests.

The White House didn’t publicly provide evidence to support the claim, which came amid reports that Iranian police had fired on protesters gathered near the grave of Mahsa Amini, whose death following detention by Iran’s morality police has sparked widespread protests across the country. But National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the allegation was based on “signs” gathered by US intelligence.

“It’s just yet another example” pf Russia and Iran “now working together to to violate” the “human rights and civil rights of people in Iran” and “of course put in further danger the lives of Ukrainians,” Kirby said.

Guinea-Bissau’s President Visits Putin, Then Zelenskiy (9:11 p.m.)

Umaro Sissoco Embalo, the president of Guinea-Bissau, visited Zelenskiy Wednesday, a day after seeing Putin to talk about the world food crisis exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.

“Yesterday I was in Russia with Putin, who asked to bring you a message, to talk to you, as direct dialogue is very important,” the African leader said. The Russian news service Tass described that as a message that Putin was ready for direct negotiations.

Zelenskiy said that “we discussed Ukraine’s efforts to overcome the global food crisis, as well as ways to simplify the entry of our business into the markets of African countries. We agreed on further cooperation at the level of international organizations for the sake of ending criminal Russian aggression and restoring peace.”

Now Berlusconi Fully Backs Italy’s Support for Ukraine (7:42 p.m.)

Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, a longtime friend of Putin who now leads Forza Italia, said Italy is clearly siding with NATO and the European Union in opposing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Only days ago, an audio message from Berlusconi was released by newswire LaPresse in which he praised Putin, said he’d rekindled their friendship through gifts and letters, and blamed Zelenskiy for Russia’s invasion.

Ukraine Officials Brief UK’s National Security Advisor (7:39 p.m.)

UK National Security Advisor Timothy Barrow was briefed by phone on the fighting by Ukraine’s army Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak.

Yermak dismissed as “absurd” Russia’s claim that Ukraine is preparing a dirty bomb, according to an emailed statement from the president’s office.

Blinken Warns of Consequences If Nuclear Weapon Used (6:45 p.m.)

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Putin of the consequences his country would face for using a nuclear weapon in its war in Ukraine.

“We’ve communicated that very clearly and directly to the Russians, including President Putin,” Blinken said during a wide-ranging interview at Bloomberg’s offices in Washington. “We’re concerned.”

Blinken said Russia’s discussion of Ukraine using a so-called dirty bomb was yet “another fabrication” and that Russia has a “history of projecting,” attributing to others behaviors they are contemplating themselves. He said the rhetoric was “irresponsible.” A dirty bomb uses conventional explosives to spread radioactive nuclear waste over a limited area.

US Citizen’s Remains to Be Returned From Ukraine (6:39 p.m.)

The US State Department said that the remains of an American citizen killed in the fighing in Ukraine have been identified and released to Ukraine’s custody for return to the US. The department said in a statement that the citizen’s name won’t be released out of respect for the family’s privacy.

“We once again reiterate that U.S. citizens should not travel to Ukraine due to Russia’s full-scale invasion and active armed conflict,” the department said.

Israel Offers Intelligence on Iranian Drones, Zelenskiy Says (4:15 p.m.) 

Russia fired more than 400 Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones across Ukraine so far, Interfax cited President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as saying during a briefing in Kyiv, a figure based on Israeli intelligence.

The data on the single-use attack drones used by Russia came from Israel several days ago, according to Zelenskiy, who said he sees it as a step forward on cooperation with Israel, with whom relations with Ukraine are “warming.” 

“We believe Israel should support Ukraine more,” he said.

Ukraine Reports Another Prisoner Swaps With Russia (3:44 p.m.) 

Ukraine conducted another prisoner swap with Russia, the country’s presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak said on Twitter. Ten Ukrainian servicemen, including one officer, returned home, he wrote. Russia also released the body of one US citizen who was fighting with Ukrainian troops.

Last week, 108 women returned to Ukraine in a prisoner swap.

Russians Fleeing Putin’s War Stoke Inflation Pain for Neighbors (3:44 p.m.) 

A wave of Russians fleeing the military mobilization to fight in Ukraine is stirring up inflation in neighboring countries and possibly putting consumer prices under more pressure at home by straining the domestic labor market. 

Kazakhstan, which quickly emerged as a popular destination that Russians can enter visa-free, experienced what the central bank called a “migration shock.” Alongside other factors such as a stronger ruble, it’s fanning inflation expectations that were among reasons for a bigger-than-forecast hike in interest rates. 

Indian Tells Russia Nuclear Weapons Should Be Off Table (3:02 p.m.) 

India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said he told his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, that “the nuclear option should not be resorted to by any side,” backing worldwide warnings against deploying atomic warheads. 

The two officials spoke by phone, with Singh reinforcing India’s position to seek a “path of dialog” to end the conflict, according to a Tweet. India hasn’t condemned Russia’s attack on its neighbor or imposed sanctions on Russia, instead becoming a vital source of demand for Russian oil since the invasion began. The two defense chiefs also discussed defense cooperation. 

‘Grom’ Nuclear Drills Involved Ballistic, Cruise Missiles (2:54 p.m.) 

Russia’s nuclear exercises, known as Grom, included the launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles from Kamchatka in the Russian far east, ballistic missiles from the Barents Sea and cruise missiles fired from the air by strategic bombers. 

Russian officials have denied they plan to use atomic weapons, while the Kremlin has accused Ukraine of planning to detonate a so-called “dirty bomb,” claims Kyiv and its allies have dismissed. Ukraine in turn has warned that Moscow could be preparing to explode a conventional weapon containing radioactive material and blame it on the Ukrainian side. 

NATO Chief Calls Russia’s ‘Dirty Bomb’ Accusations Absurd (2:43 p.m.)

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Russian claims about a Ukrainian “dirty bomb” are “absurd.” Russia must not use a false pretext “to escalate the war further,” he told reporters in Brussels.

Stoltenberg said he would meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan “in the near future” as he seeks quick ratification of bids by Sweden and Finland to join NATO — and reiterated that allies are ready to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes.” 

“The stronger Ukraine is on the battlefield, the more likely we will have a political solution that ensures Ukraine prevails as a sovereign, independent nation in Europe,” Stoltenberg said. 

Russia Airs Ukraine ‘Dirty Bomb’ Claims with China, India (12:51 p.m.)

Russian defense chief Shoigu spoke with his Chinese and Indian counterparts to discuss Moscow’s allegations that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb on its own territory.

The calls took place after Shoigu earlier this week contacted defense ministers in the UK, France and Turkey to make the same claims. The US and Russian defense chiefs also spoke twice in the space of three days.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said his country has “information” about the threat, which it’s shared, including at the United Nations Security Council. Ukraine has denied the accusations, suggesting that Russia itself is planning to explode a dirty bomb and blame it on Kyiv.

Estonia Sets Up Preventative Measures for Civilians (12:28 p.m.)

Estonia is procuring air-raid sirens and designating public facilities as bomb shelters in order to better defend its civilian population in potential wartime situations.

The Baltic nation, formerly annexed by the Soviet Union and among the most vocal critics of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, said it signed an agreement with Slovakia-based Telegrafia AS to procure warning sirens in 22 towns and cities. The country is also rolling out more barbed wire fencing on its border with Russia.

While investing more per capita in its military than most other NATO members, Estonia says its citizens are poorly defended against potential military conflict and natural catastrophes.

Maritime Traffic in Ukraine Crop-Export Corridor ‘On Hold’ (10:59 a.m.)

Two vessels were dispatched to check the area where a suspicious object was reported in the Black Sea’s grain-export corridor, Ismini Palla, UN spokeswoman for the Black Sea Grain Initiative, said by email. Traffic has “been put on hold for today,” she said. Findings will be reported to the initiative’s Joint Coordination Centre later in the day. 

The suspicious object was reported earlier Tuesday by a vessel in the area. The finding risks further disrupting crop exports from Ukraine, which have already been slowed by a lengthy vessel-inspection holdup in Istanbul. The crop-export deal that revived Ukraine’s seaborne trade is up for renewal in mid-November, and officials have yet to verify an extension.

Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Slows on Weather (10:17 a.m.)

Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said his country’s counteroffensive has slowed as rainy conditions make it harder to move military equipment.

The rainy weather “makes us a little bit slower” but we are taking our area back by “meters and kilometers, step-by-step,” he said in an interview with Fox News. “And we will continue to do it.”

He said Russia’s troops are not ready for street fighting in the southern city of Kherson, where they are facing issues with military supplies after the Ukrainian army repeatedly hit bridges linking Kherson and the left bank of Dnipro river, occupied by Russian forces.

Ukraine Limits Power in Some Regions (9:07 a.m.)

The national electricity grid operator Ukrenergo limited power deliveries to consumers in a wide swathe of Ukraine’s central and eastern regions. The move should “ease the burden on the grid to ensure a sustainable balance of the energy system and to avoid repeated accidents after electricity lines were damaged by Russia’s missiles shelling,” the company said on Telegram.

A day earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk made a plea to Ukrainians who fled the country because of the invasion. “You see what Russia is doing, the grid cannot withstand” such pressure, she said on television. “If you have an opportunity to spend the winter abroad, it is worth doing that.”

Russia Flags Regular Nuclear Drills (1:50 a.m.)

Russia notified the US of plans to hold its “routine annual exercise” in compliance with arm control obligations, Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Patrick Ryder said.

Russia held the drills in February this year, shortly before it invaded Ukraine. The exercises, known as Grom, or “thunder,” traditionally take place in October, involving submarines, planes and missiles, but were skipped in 2021 due to the Covid pandemic.

“That is something that we will continue to keep an eye on,” Ryder said.