By Jaime Ortega.
Vladimir Putin said that the disintegration of the USSR had been ” one of the greatest catastrophes of the twentieth century ” and stated that he was not giving permission to Europe to the appropriated remains of Soviet wreck. In fact , the Russian president believes that the best of the old days can still come back , though not under the same red flag but under the umbrella of a trade and military cooperation between old comrades.
Therefore, the interest of the European Union for its orbit to attract countries such as Ukraine , Georgia and Moldova has worried the Kremlin with a strong fist on the table. Ukraine, which industry is intertwined with Russia dependent on gas has got the message and has preferred to solve their problems at the expense of Moscow park’s a thinking of Brussels.
Kiev ‘s resignation to enter the club of EU trade at the moment is a headache for the Ukrainian European roots while it is more than a historical concept. Last year Ukraine imported products and services from the EU amounting to 23,800 million Euros, while trade in the opposite direction grazed 15,000 million.
Economic dependence on the European bloc has doubled since 2003 and the EU represents one of their best customers when exporting raw materials and industrial products. With these figures, the economy is the best weapon of persuasion that Brussels has to deal with the conflict that broke out last week by the Ukrainian waived trade agreement that would eliminate 99% of tariff barriers. So the Commissioner for Enlargement , Stefan Fuele , yesterday warned the Ukrainian authorities to his rejection of free trade agreement with the EU ” threatens its economic future.”
The sudden change in direction that the Ukrainian government took last week is, according to Brussels, to ” external pressure ” that the country is suffering from neighboring Russia . The truth is that without Ukraine , the trade union that Putin pushes to Belarus and Kazakhstan would take a negative toll for Russia’s plan. The 45 million Ukrainian consumers with its own industry and agriculture are historically important ,and make the Ukrainian republic whose floor was the founding core of the Russian – piece of history that the Kremlin cannot yield .
On the horns of a dilemma
Moscow knows that Georgia or Moldova may not go much further than a privileged partnership with the EU which can always be reversed in the future. But Ukraine has enough value to be considered a member of the EU, and become part of the EU’s plan to keep growing financially. You could even join NATO : one of the nightmares of Moscow , as it lost military cooperation in the Black Sea.
” We are not prepared to open our market to European goods,” Putin acknowledged this week during a visit to Italy. And he said that Russia fears that a trade association of Ukrainians with the EU indirectly could splash the Russian market , because there are too many veins between the two republics communicating vessels. Moscow has long been exerting pressure on its strategic partner , remembering that if Kiev gives step change not only will hurt their relations with the Russians, but with member countries of the Customs Union , ” then they would have to think of some protectionist measures,” according Putin said. In fact, Russia has already anticipated this bitter medicine of Ukrainians vetoing some imports . The Central European country , mired in the economic crisis , has accused the coup and the loss of jobs .
For Ukraine the ballot is very difficult especially during these last 24 hours left for the lights of medieval chandeliers to summit to the Lithuania agreement. The former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko , who is serving in a hospital far from Kiev, is on hunger strike for her country for not embracing the European hand and asked community leaders to accept Ukraine as a club member even without complying with the tacit agreement to allow their departure to treat her serious health problems in Germany.
While 10,000 people demonstrated last night on the streets of Kiev and the Ukrainian society … appears to incline slightly in favor of a rapprochement with the EU , the EU authorities hope to attract , to varying degrees , to six countries in the former Soviet perimeter called Vilnius.
Georgia and Moldova , the following
If finally the EU and Ukraine fail to close the negotiations of free trade agreement , Georgia and Moldova will only give a step forward initiating association paperwork . Azerbaijan , Armenia , Belarus are more long-term projects with a commercial importance which is mixed with weak political equilibrium that embodies each of them by long terms.
The EU insisted that its hand is stretched out to Yanukovich , who has come to Vilnius despite the bad response shown these past days. But in the case of Ukraine, Russia is the main destination for Ukrainian exports and trade and cultural ties are much closer , despite the growing presence of EU companies in the country. So the Ukrainian government fears that economic reprisals from Moscow are more damaging than the potential benefits of the EU. The Ukraine has to solve a financial paradox.
