Martin Koelling’s Post

Great experience following along the panels and debates on the future of nuclear arms control at Evangelische Akademie Loccum! 📌 Some of the many questions that stuck with me: 1) Is arms control enhancing mutual confidence, or is mutual confidence needed to reach arms control agreements in the first place? 2) To what extent are states (still?) interested in transparency and maintaining strategic stability? 3) In the context of future nuclear choices by France and the UK, do we primarily ask ourselves what foreign countries will take seriously, or are we operationalising deterrence according to what we believe is appropriate? 4) In the context of the Budapest Memorandum, how can we reconcile the demand for nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation with the dissatisfaction in security assurances? 5) Can we compartmentalise certain issues or reach informal agreements, and thereby prevent multilateral fragmentation, for example concerning the humanitarian dimension? 6) Why are nuclear weapons not everywhere? I appreciate the diverse range of perspectives on these and other topics, and moreover the patience with which the experts sought to explain their arguments to me as a student. #team #experience #people #france I think I heard the phrase: "That is a very broad question." more times than during my entire undergraduate studies... 🗺 It was also great to get to know so many new people or meeting some I only ever read about, including Luuk Simon, Eric Matt, Jannis Kappelmann, Franziska Stärk, Lucian Bumeder, Tim Thies, Tytti Erästö, Marjolijn van Deelen, Polina Sinovets, Klaus de Rijk, Ingeborg Denissen and soooooo many more. ⚠ Lastly, I want to thank Dr. Thomas Muller-Farber as representative of the Loccum-Team in this case, and am grateful for the cooperation with the Junge DGAP which enabled my attendance and that of many more students I met over these days! Hope to be there again next year! 👉 https://lnkd.in/e6Bhg6KQ

I told Deutsche Welle that the #Wagner mutiny in #Russia would not result in #Iran distancing itself from Russia. I explained that since the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran has been pursuing a pivot to east foreign policy, in which #Russia plays an important role. Especially after the United States pulled out of the nuclear deal with Iran (2018). I argued that hardliners in Iran consider Russia to be a trustworthy ally and they consider Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as an opportunity to prove themselves as a reliable partner to Russia. Iran will not distance itself from Russia. But under these circumstances, Iran is trying to have a de-escalating effect towards the West - for example by indirectly negotiating with the USA. Regarding the implication of mutiny for war in #Ukraine, As I stated, I expect the war in Ukraine to become more brutal after the rebellion of the Wagner group, which has almost made it to the gates of Moscow. #Putin wants to show strength to the outside world.