Since Russia invaded Ukraine eight months ago, pro-Kyiv Western governments have tended to talk about war in black and white terms, has little sympathy for the countries hovering between the West and Moscow.
US leadership sees support for Ukraine as a matter of defending a “rules-based international order” under attack by rogue dictators.
In Arab countries, however, this Manichean story has been largely dismissed. Saudi Arabia and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) essentially see the conflict in Ukraine as a complex European conflict that does not require Arab states to fight back. the government of Vladimir Putin.
Although no Arab government – save Syria – fully supports Russia’s invasion, occupation and annexation of Ukraine’s land, Arab politicians do not believe that their government should burn bridges with Moscow because of this conflict.
Thus, while the GCC states largely supported United Nations General Assembly resolutions condemning Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, none joined the Western powers in carrying out these actions. sanctions against Moscow or other policies aimed at squeezing Russia.
“Most of the developing world in Asia and Africa, including the Middle East, did not see the Ukraine war as the sort of definitive, transitional moment in international relations like the West,” said Hussein Ibish. a resident scholar in the Arabian Gulf. American Institute in Washington, Written this month.
As the war in Ukraine enters its ninth month, some analysts believe Saudi Arabia will likely remain despite Western pressure to align itself against Moscow. For the leadership in Riyadh, they say, maintaining relative neutrality serves Saudi Arabia’s interests, and that the kingdom is using this war – and their response to it – to send message to the US that Saudi Arabia is not a vassal state of Washington.
“The Saudis have emphasized in recent years that they seek to avoid getting entangled in what the US calls ‘great power competition,’” said Gerald Feierstein, former US ambassador to Yemen and vice president. senior director of the Middle East Institute, told Al Jazeera. “Their interests, Saudi Arabia have made clear, are focused on maintaining a strong relationship with their main security partner, the United States; their number one economic partner, China; and their key partner in OPEC+, Russia. “
The partnership between Saudi Arabia and Russia remains strong
Riyadh has maintained a cooperative relationship with Russia since President Putin sent troops into neighboring Ukraine in late February. In fact, at the start of the war, Saudi Arabia’s Kingdom Holding Co invested at least $500 million in Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil, just as the West is punishing these Russian energy giants with measures sanctions.
More recently, on October 5, the OPEC+ group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia announced plans to reduce oil production. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, remains serious about its financial and commercial interests and market stability.
However, the announcement angered officials in Washington, who believe that the OPEC+ decision will help Russia withstand US and European sanctions, while undermining Western efforts. West to isolate Putin’s government.
“There is no doubt that Riyadh finds it necessary to maintain a cordial relationship with Moscow, both to coordinate oil production as well as maintain a solid dialogue with Russia on Iranian initiatives,” said Joseph A. Kechichian, a senior fellow at the King Faisal Center in Riyadh, told Al Jazeera, referring to Moscow’s relationship with Saudi Arabia’s regional rival, Iran.
“In 2022, Saudi officials were anxious to keep oil prices stable at around $100/barrel – essentially to fund many development investments in the country – which only achievable through unified OPEC+ agreements, but also to keep channels of communication open. discuss different issues. “
Saudi Arabia’s continued strengthening of its relationship with Russia – even if it is based on convenience and opportunity – will increase tensions between Riyadh and Washington, analysts say. The fiery rhetoric from US lawmakers about downgrading Washington’s security relationship with Riyadh and in favor of so-called “NOPEC” laws shows Saudi Arabia’s image and credibility in Washington. has suffered this year, especially after the latest developments at OPEC+.
“The Russian attack in Ukraine brought [Riyadh’s] Feierstein adds that Saudi Arabia’s recent OPEC+ decision “reflects the fact that all of its decisions will be viewed in the US from the point of view of: ‘Are you with us or against them? I?’ “
David Roberts, an associate professor at King’s College London, also said the OPEC+ decision went down “incredibly bad” in the US.
“That’s all that matters. That has essentially exacerbated the long-standing division in Saudi-US relations that lasted since 2019 and the attack on Abqaiq,” he told Al Jazeera, referring to the attacks. 2019 on Saudi Aramco facilities claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Roberts added: “So the elastic cord that holds Saudi Arabia and the US together has long been close to breaking point.
Support for Ukraine
As the East-West divide grows with great power rivalry intensifying, maintaining close proximity to both the US and Russia will be challenging for Saudi Arabia. However, Riyadh has clearly signaled that it will continue to pursue a difficult goal that requires careful navigation in the changing geopolitical landscape of the world. Although the kingdom’s cooperation with the Russians in energy, investment and other fields has continued since February 24, Saudi Arabia has shown a degree of support for Ukraine when The kingdom tries to position itself as a useful mediator.
In September, Saudi Arabia and Turkey played a key role in facilitating the prisoner swap between Kyiv and Moscow, resulting in some Western citizens (including Americans) were released after they were captured on the battlefield while fighting for Ukraine. This move has helped Saudi Arabia present its position in the conflict with the US and Europe as beneficial rather than harmful to Western interests.
Earlier this month, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) had a phone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. MBS pledged to provide the war-torn country with $400 million in non-lethal aid – a move many analysts see as an attempt by Saudi Arabia to create stronger public perception. West Riyadh is neutral in the conflict.
“It is difficult to see Saudi Arabia’s humanitarian aid as more than a gesture made after the United States expressed anger at the OPEC+ decision. Riyadh has said that it has always supported peaceful solutions to conflicts, but has stopped short of outright condemning the invasion of Ukraine,” said Imad Harb, Director of Research and Analysis at the Washington DC Arab Center, told Al Jazeera. “Now, the aid claim is certainly appreciated by Ukraine, but it’s hard to separate it from the rigors of the decision to cut oil.”
Nuclear weapons significantly increase shares
Looking ahead, there is no sign of an immediate solution to the war in Ukraine. The global implications are frightening, especially given the risks to food security and the possibility of nuclear weapons being used in conflict.
Kechichian said it is important to consider whether an extension of time could lead to a change in foreign policy towards Riyadh.
“What will not happen, however, is direct participation in the conflict, as the kingdom has called for an end, providing humanitarian assistance to the unfortunate Ukrainian people, voting for territorial integrity territory of the country in various United Nations resolutions and work to convince the President. Vladimir Putin to put an end to Russian attacks on Ukrainians,” he added.
“The main evolution is most likely to come after the constant battles that increase the confrontations, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons, which will force Riyadh away from Moscow. Such an escalation will most likely have various consequences,” continued Kechichian.
In the Gulf region, he said, the logic behind such a scenario would be based on Iran being able to buy and use nuclear weapons, even if Tehran maintains its nuclear program is strictly peaceful.
“Under those circumstances, Riyadh would certainly pursue a similar goal – embarking on a nuclear program with the specific aim of acquiring such weapons – to protect itself and to defend itself,” Kechichian said. allies in the region. “This is why Saudi officials are cautious about the war for Ukraine and remain wary of protracted confrontations that make both sides hostile, one of which could, in a moments of madness or complete frustration, using weapons of mass destruction.”
