Rivian 'Best Positioned EV OEM': Analyst Praises Long-Term Outlook, R2 Launch, With Short-Term Caution

Rivian Automotive RIVN gets a lowered price target from an analyst with questions lingering on demand for electric vehicles.

The Rivian Analyst: Needham analyst Chris Pierce has a Buy rating on Rivian. He also lowered the price target from $18 to $13.

The Analyst Takeaways: Electric vehicle demand remains a concern. However, demand for the R1S from Rivian is better than feared, Pierce says.

Related Link: Rivian Unveils R2, Teases R3: Key Features, Prices For Model Y Competitor

"R1S used vehicle pricing came in better than feared in our used EV OEM price tracker, and although price decreases are expected as used supply grows, we haven't seen any data that points to a steep drop-off in demand," Pierce said.

The analyst updates delivery estimates after the unveiling of the R2 vehicle. Pierce has estimates of 51,485 units delivered in 2024 and 69,756 units delivered in 2025. Those figures are both below consensus estimates. The analyst's estimates for 2026 (154,378) and 2027 (237,037) are ahead of consensus estimates according to the report.

Pierce notes that the TAM for Rivian will expand with the R2 and R3. The R2, however, is "not a near-term catalyst."

"We see RIVN as the best positioned EV OEM in our coverage, with the bridge to the TAM expanding R2 vehicle sturdier as the company reduces its planned capex by pushing out the timing of the build-out of its Georgia plant."

The lower price target for Rivian comes as the company "navigates a period of slower EV adoption," the analyst said.

"Overall demand has weakened, based on RIVN's own commentary, but used vehicle price declines are in line with their historical averages."

Rivian started with a clean slate in the electric vehicle market, Pierce adds. This could benefit the company when it comes to supply chain and manufacturing.

"Investors key questions are whether the cash pile can sustain growth through a 2026 R2 launch and how quickly the company can hit GM (gross margin) profitability."

The analyst's bull case has a price target of $24, while a bear case shows a price target of $7.50.

Rivian Price Action:

Rivian shares are up 2% to $8.93 on Thursday. Its 52-week trading range is between $8.26 and $28.06. Its shares are down 63% year-to-date in 2024.

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