Petrobras should have dividends above US$ 6 billion in the 3rd quarter, say analysts

Petrobras is expected to post solid results and dividends above US$ 6 billion (R$ 31 billion) in the third quarter, despite a decline in the price of Brent oil in the period and an accumulation of inventories by the company, market analysts said.

Brent fell about 12% between July and September, compared to the previous quarter’s level, but analysts believe the company will maintain strong cash generation.

“Lower oil prices should affect Ebitda, but investors should still expect a solid display of what has become a cash-generating machine,” analysts at BTG Pactual said in a report to clients.

The bank calculates that Petrobras will announce a dividend of US$ 6.5 billion, considering that it has a leverage of 1 times the net debt over Ebitda.

The company published the day before total oil and gas production of 2.644 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the third quarter, down 6.6% versus a year earlier and down 0.3% from the previous quarter, results already published. previously by the regulator ANP.

Analysts at Credit Suisse said they had read the numbers “marginally negative” for the third quarter, due to a build-up of inventories, but that the results should still be “solid”.

“Production and sales implied an accumulation of stock of around 98 thousand bpd in the quarter – that is, Petrobras produced (and imported) more volumes than it sold (including exports) in the quarter. The main factors in the result were higher diesel imports and lower oil exports,” the bank’s analysts said.

Credit Suisse analysts projected an Ebitda of $17.5 billion for Petrobras in the third quarter, which would be up 46% from a year earlier and down 13% from the second quarter, given prices lowest for oil.

“Results will likely not be as exciting as in the second quarter, when Petrobras paid extraordinary dividends, but we still see solid free cash flow generation of around $9 billion in the quarter. billion to $9 billion in the third quarter, in our view,” Credit said.

XP followed suit and said it expected “another solid quarter of cash generation”, with an Ebitda of 17.6 billion dollars and dividends of 6 billion dollars.

CAUTION BEFORE ELECTIONS

Despite the positive scenario, analysts view the oil company’s shares with caution, due to the proximity to the second round of the presidential elections in Brazil.

“With less than five trading sessions until the second round of the presidential election, we believe volatility will persist and we see little reason to increase exposure to Petrobras’ thesis now,” BTG said.

Analysts at Credit Suisse cut their recommendation of Petrobras shares to “neutral” last week, arguing that they prefer to reduce their exposure amid the volatility brought by the election race.