Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Core viewpointsJackpotlotNeutral domestic and Iranian factoriesJackpotlotThe impact of price negotiations is basically over, and there has also been a marked increase in shipments in Iran this week, while with the sharp rebound in methanol prices last week, the profits of olefin enterprises have also been significantly compressed, leading to rumors this week that two units in eastern China may be overhauled later, and the expected rebound in imports may lead to a surge in methanol prices in the near future, but downstream factory stocks before the overhaul season in the mainland have led to substantial destocking of the current inventory. There is also support for prices, it is expected to be a wide range of shocks before the festival, pay attention to risk control before the long holiday, pay attention to the actual arrival in Hong Kong after the festival and the continuity of downstream delivery, and it is expected that the market may weaken after the festival.
Arbitrage: 9-1 anti-arbitrage; low PP-3MA spread, band operation
Thermal coal: neutral pit mouth price rebounded slightly, port weakening, but the range is not large
Domestic supply: more maintenance and restart in parallel, but more maintenance devices, domestic operating rate continues to decline this week
Imports: short domestic price negotiations with Iran are basically over, shipments are high this week, and imports are still expected to increase.
Downstream demand: more traditional downstream operating rate has stopped falling and rebounded, MTO plant has little change, but there is a maintenance plan in the later stage, and the demand is expected to weaken.
Upstream profit: the price of short coal is arranged in a narrow range, the profit from coal to methanol continues to rise, and the profit of mainland enterprises is better.
MTO profit: short MTO profit fixed slightly but still at a low level
Inventory: too many ports and inland go to the warehouse, but the current inventory level is low.
There is still too much overhaul.
Coal: the price of pit mouth rebounded slightly and the port was weak and stable
Coal pit prices stopped falling and rebounded, except for the obvious increase in coal in Shanxi, the performance in other areas was general, the chemical coal market fluctuated in a narrow range, and port prices weakened but not much this week. The current port inventory is still high, but the market is expected to power plant reserve demand is still there, coal prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range.
The operating rate continues to decline.
As of the week of April 25, the operating rate of methanol plants in China was 68.Jackpotlot.6%, of which the operating rate of coal-to-methanol plant is 73%.Jackpotlot.7%, the operating rate of natural gas to methanol plant is 47.8%, and that of coke oven gas to methanol plant is 55.1%.
There are too many maintenance devices.
This week, the maintenance plan is gradually realized, and there are too many maintenance equipment. the new maintenance equipment this week are Inner Mongolia Eco, Inner Mongolia Donghua, and CNOOC South China. Hebei Jinshi, Shaanxi Qinghua, China Coal Yuanxing, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shanxi Wanxinda, Northwest Energy, Inner Mongolia Boyuan, Datu River and other quantities are still under maintenance. Yankuang Xinjiang 30, Jiutai 200, Inner Mongolia Rongxin 90, Yankuang Yulin 60 still have maintenance plans.
Profits from coal production continue to pick up
Although coal prices have weakened slightly recently, methanol prices have increased in the mainland and methanol prices have been strong under the background of downstream pre-holiday replenishment, and the profits of coal-to-methanol plants in the mainland continue to rise; profits from natural gas to methanol and coke oven gas to methanol maintain narrow fluctuations. The profit of theoretical coal production in Inner Mongolia is 12 yuan / ton, the profit of southwest natural gas plant is-10 yuan / ton, and the profit of methanol from Hebei coke oven gas is 330 yuan / ton.
Increase in overhaul of overseas installations
During the inspection and repair of one set of equipment in ZPC, Iran, the load of another set of equipment is not high, one set of Malaysian device stops and overhauls, the other set operates normally, a set of 1.75 million tons of equipment in the United States is stopped for maintenance, and the 850000 ton device of Brunei stops for a short time.
Pay attention to the fulfillment of MTO maintenance plan
Small profit repair of MTO
The operating rate of the MTO plant has dropped, and as of April 25, the operating rate of the domestic MTO plant was 82.9%.
MTO profits repaired slightly this week, but are still at a low level. As negotiations with Iran are over, the superimposed geographical impact weakens, and the high price of methanol falls, leading to the repair of MTO profits.
Pay attention to the maintenance plan under low profit
During the parking of Shenhua Baotou MTO plant, Chengzhi Phase I MTO plant is scheduled to be overhauled in mid-May. Xingxing has a parking plan in May. Pay attention to the cashing time of Chengzhi Phase I and Xingxing plant maintenance.
The traditional downstream operating rate continues to decline.
The traditional downstream comprehensive operating rate stopped falling and rebounded. The operating rates of formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE and DMF were 30.4 (+ 0.5)%, 89 (+ 7.9)%, 62.1 (+ 3.6)% and 35.6 (+ 4)%. The rebound in the operating rate of acetic acid and MTBE has obviously led to an improvement in demand, but the current downstream profits are still on the low side, and more goods are received downstream on demand.
Pending orders rebounded sharply, and newly signed orders decreased
The number of orders to be issued rebounded sharply during the week, and the number of newly signed orders dropped obviously. in the early stage, the sharp rise in prices led to transactions in the mainland, but with the fall in prices and the basic end of the replenishment before the festival, this week's newly signed orders dropped obviously, giving priority to the implementation of pre-orders, which led to an increase in the number of orders issued on behalf of the mainland and a decrease in new orders.
Both the port and the mainland go to the warehouse
This week, the port inventory is 63.2 (- 5.6) million tons, the port negotiable inventory is 24 (+ 3.7) million tons, and the port inventory is going to the warehouse this week, on the one hand, due to the decrease in arrival at the port this week, and on the other hand, due to the centralized replenishment in the lower reaches before the long holiday, it directly causes the inventory to become accumulated this week, which is in line with the expectations of inventory judgment last week, and is expected to accumulate gradually after the holiday.
National factory inventory this week, overhaul peak overlay before the reserve demand stimulation, the mainland to warehouse is more obvious, this week mainland enterprise inventory has been at the absolute low level in recent years.
The replenishment before the festival is at the end.
MTO enterprise raw material inventory did not change much last week, after the previous low-price replenishment action slowed, and last week's high prices also led to a decline in the willingness to replenish inventory. The inventory of raw materials of traditional downstream manufacturers continues to increase, and remains at a high level compared with the same period last year. Last week, traditional downstream manufacturers continued to replenish the stock, which is basically at the end of replenishment.
There are too many subsequent arrivals to Hong Kong.
The number of imported ship reports fell this week, causing inventories to go out of storage this week, and the volume of arrivals to the port in the next cycle is obviously weak. It is estimated that China's imported shipments will arrive at the port of 70.4-710000 tons from April 26 to May 12, and it is estimated that 410-50, 000 tons of shipments from the mainland will still arrive at the port. To control the subsequent actual arrival in Hong Kong.
Domestic price negotiations with Iran have come to an end, and shipments were underaffected by the negotiations last week and resumed this week. Iran shipped 430000 tons from April to last week, 628000 tons by today, and 80, 000 tons planned for the weekend.
The 9-1 spread continues to fall.
Focus on the narrowing of the 9-1 spread
Despite the end of the impact of price negotiations, due to the replenishment of inventory before the long holiday and the impact of overhaul in the mainland, the spot price performance is strong, but the import rebound is expected to be slightly weaker, and the basis remains high.
In terms of monthly spread, the 5-9 spread fluctuates within a narrow range, while the 9-1 spread continues to weaken. The expectation of a rebound in imports is compounded by the off-season of traditional demand, resulting in weak expectations for the 09 contract. This is the main reason for the decline in the 9-1 spread. Pay attention to the rebound in imports. The 9-1 spread is still expected to have room for decline.
PP-3MA spread rebounded at low level
On the market, the price difference between L/PP-3MA rebounded at a low level. On the one hand, the impact of price negotiations with Iran was temporarily terminated. On the other hand, the news of the MTO plant shutdown plan this week also put pressure on methanol prices, which led to the price difference between PP/L-3MA rebounded at a low level. With the expectation of a rebound in methanol imports coupled with the expectation of MTO shutdown, we will continue to focus on the low level to expand MTO profits and operate in a band manner.
balance sheet
Monthly balance sheet of methanol
